FIFA World Cup 2026 predictions: Full group stage & knockout bracket breakdown

The following group qualification odds will be updated after the Final Draw. With Thomas Tuchel replacing Gareth Southgate, England seeks its first World Cup title since 1966. After a semifinal run in 2018 and a quarterfinal loss to France in 2022, anything short of the semifinals in 2026 will be a disappointment. Winning a FIFA World Cup can catapult a player into legendary status and immortalize an entire team. Paraguay’s squad features several familiar names, including Brighton & Hove Albion’s Diego Gómez, Strasbourg’s Julio Enciso and Sunderland defender Omar Alderete, but Miguel Almiron stands out as their key figure. Just over a year after staging the FIFA Club World Cup, the United States will once again welcome the footballing world as co-hosts of the 2026 World Cup, a status that spared them the challenge of navigating qualification.

Southgate’s England teams were also solid at the back but rarely free-flowing. At Euro 2024, they recorded just 5.4 xG – Turkey, Austria and Switzerland were among the teams to better that tally. Tuchel’s task is simple – get international football’s nearly men over the line. He could become only the third manager to win both the UEFA Champions League and the World Cup, after Marcello Lippi (Juventus, Italy) and Del Bosque (Real Madrid, Spain).

England (+650) round out the top three in the 2026 World Cup odds, while Brazil (+750) are the biggest soccer favorites outside of Europe. Reigning champion Argentina, led by Lionel Messi, are +900 as they seek to become the first back-to-back winners since Brazil in 1962. Meanwhile, the USMNT are a +6500 longshot to win on home soil, with Mexico just behind at +7000. Before making any 2026 World Cup picks or predictions, you need to see what SportsLine’s soccer insider Martin Green has to say. Spain enter as a major tournament favorite, led by superstar Lamine Yamal. However, the group won’t be straightforward against an experienced Uruguay side that only allowed 12 goals in 18 CONMEBOL qualification games.

Track your path to 2026 World Cup glory with The Straits Times’ results simulator

However, as the lowest-ranked side in the group, Tunisia may be seen as the most obvious candidate to finish bottom, especially as they have failed to make it out of the group stage in each of their six World Cup appearances. Sweden are set to make just their second World Cup appearance since 2006, despite finishing bottom of their qualifying group with two points to their name. Netherlands may not be among the favourites to lift the trophy, but that will not stop them from heading to North America with hopes of going one step further their runners-up finishes of 1974, 1978 and 2010. Three-time runners-up Netherlands headline Group F, which has all the makings of being one of the most competitive groups in the tournament.

• South Korea takes on Czech Republic in a well-balanced matchup, where discipline, organization, and taking chances could be key factors.
• If they manage to stay alive until Matchday 3, they will already have done well.
• Simulating, playing Prono, and following live results are all free.
• We offer a free premium printable World Cup 2026 bracket in both Letter and A4 formats.
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• That combination makes Panama a strong candidate for group-stage elimination.
• Each group match also displays a small probability indicator based on team strength, so the favorite in any fixture is visible before a pick is made.
• It is the first World Cup with 48 teams and the first co-hosted by three nations.
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• Tunisia’s unenviable record of failing to advance from the group stage in each of their six previous World Cup campaigns suggests they could struggle to keep pace with the rest of the pack.

Combined volume on the tournament winner contract alone in the U.S. is more than $300 million across Polymarket and Kalshi. He previously worked as fan brands editor for Manchester City at Reach Plc. Prior to that, he built more than a decade of experience in the sports journalism industry, primarily for the Stats Perform and Press Association news agencies. Cricket and boxing are his other major sporting passions and he has covered the likes of Anthony Joshua, Tyson Fury, Wladimir Klitschko, Gennadiy Golovkin and Vasyl Lomachenko live from ringside.

World Cup Fantasy Rankings: Best Players for the Group Stage

Set up a free prediction pool for the FIFA World Cup 2026 with friends, family or coworkers. Predict scores, follow live results and compete on the leaderboard. France vs Spain – Only a handful of teams can stop Les Bleus from becoming the first team in World Cup history to reach three consecutive finals. Fresh off a dominant qualifying cycle, England enter the tournament as one of the top favourites to take home the most prestigious international title. In addition to co-hosts Canada, Bosnia & Herzegovina and Qatar will also be vying for a top-two spot in this group, with all three nations seeking a maiden knockout appearance on the grandest international stage. Use our predictor tool to select the winners of each group and each knockout round at the 2026 Fifa World Cup.

He’s also identified a longshot team priced at over +1000 that could pull off a massive shocker and hoist the trophy. Cape Verde are well organized and far more disciplined than many first-time qualifiers, but Spain and Uruguay are the sort of opponents who rarely allow a debutant much breathing room. Saudi Arabia are the most winnable of the three matchups, but even that game could decide whether Cape Verde stay alive or go home early. If I had to pick one of the debuting African teams most likely to be eliminated, Cape Verde would still be close to the top of the list simply because of the size of the challenge in front of them.

Deschamps’ reign has comprised 175 games, so if they reach the first knockout round, he will have overseen 100 games more than France’s next-longest serving boss (Raymond Domenech, 79). If Spain are to triumph, it is likely Lamine Yamal will play a key role. Their Euro 2024 triumph came the day after Yamal’s 17th birthday, as he replaced Pelé (1958, 17 years, 249 days) as the youngest player to feature in a World Cup or European Championship final. It is little surprise, then, that Spain are our predictive model’s early World Cup favourites, going all the way in 17.0% of tournament predictions. And there has been no downturn from De la Fuente’s side since. Ahead of this week’s draw, we have taken a deep dive into the Opta supercomputer’s first set of World Cup predictions to assess who is most likely to lift the trophy.

Experience the New 48-Team Format

The usual suspects are likely to be in the conversation at the business end of the tournament. Lionel Messi will want to make more history as holders Argentina eye consecutive World Cups to sit alongside back-to-back Copas America. There may be some doubt as to whether the Netherlands have enough quality in their squad to go the distance, but they certainly have enough experience and talent in their ranks to secure top spot in a potentially tricky group. The experienced midfielder will act as the glue between defence and attack, tasked with protecting the backline and keeping moves ticking over when his team is in possession.

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• Spain will draw heavy support, but France’s experience in semi-finals and finals gives them an edge in pressure moments.
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• Just over a year after staging the FIFA Club World Cup, the United States will once again welcome the footballing world as co-hosts of the 2026 World Cup, a status that spared them the challenge of navigating qualification.
• This season, 48% of World Cup 2026 matches ended with over 2.5 goals, while Both Teams to Score hit in 51% of games.
• France appear primed for another title push, led by the world’s top goal scorer Kylian Mbappe and reigning Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele.
• This matchup delivers a final showdown between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.
• Cristiano Ronaldo’s last chance to lead Portugal to World Cup glory should begin with a relatively straightforward group-stage campaign, even though Colombia possess the quality to make life uncomfortable for the Iberians.
• With 16 extra teams compared to previous editions, the group stage alone will feature 72 matches — more than the entire 2022 World Cup.
• From there, single-elimination knockouts run through the Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Final, exactly as the real World Cup football predictions bracket will play out.
• Both teams have enough quality to make this a very close contest.
• Here’s the latest odds for the top 10 favourites to win the 2026 World Cup.

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Mexico vs Best 3rd place Group C/E/F/H/I – Since suffering a quarter-final elimination on home soil in 1986, Mexico have reached the round of 16 in seven of their eight World Cup appearances. Netherlands vs Morocco – Even though the odds may be stacked against them, Morocco’s knack for upsetting elite opposition could produce the first major shock of the tournament. Cristiano Ronaldo’s last chance to lead Portugal to World Cup glory should begin with a relatively straightforward group-stage campaign, even though Colombia possess the quality to make life uncomfortable for the Iberians. Argentina’s quest to become just the third nation in World Cup history to successfully defend their title should face no real threat in Group J. Tunisia’s unenviable record of failing to advance from the group stage in each of their six previous World Cup campaigns suggests they could struggle to keep pace with the rest of the pack.

Group Stage

What makes Curaçao fascinating is that they are not a filler team. Their squad is built heavily from Dutch-raised players, and the team qualified by staying unbeaten in the final phase of qualifying. Still, when the group contains Germany plus two more physically strong and technically sharp sides, survival becomes a serious challenge.

This is an independent fan experience and is not affiliated with or endorsed by FIFA or any official tournament organizer. The predictor is mobile-first — tap to rank groups and pick a champion, no drag-and-drop required. For quiniela / bolão scoring systems that reward exact scores. Use our printable variant to write score predictions next to each match by hand.

World Cup Squad Ages: Youngest and Oldest Teams Ranked

In the simulator’s model, the highest-ranked nations such as France, Spain, and Argentina win most often, since match probabilities are weighted by FIFA rankings. Lower-ranked teams still advance regularly, so no outcome is guaranteed. The 2026 format adds a layer that did not exist in the 32-team era. After the top two from each group qualify, the third-place finishers from all 12 groups are compared against one another, and the eight best advance to complete the 32-team knockout bracket.

• That places significant responsibility on Joao Pedro, who has impressed at Chelsea, but it remains uncertain whether that will be enough, or even if he’s locked into the XI.
• Haaland struck 16 of those goals, matching Robert Lewandowski’s 2018 record for the most prolific UEFA World Cup qualification campaign.
• Semi-finalists in both 2018 and 2022, they are assigned a 1.1% chance of glory – lower than Mexico and Uruguay (1.7%), whose coach Bielsa recently went on a rant in a press conference following speculation over his position.
• Lionel Messi, finally crowned world champion, was named Player of the Tournament in what many consider the greatest World Cup final ever played.
• Meanwhile, France bring Championship pedigree, combining 2018 winners Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele with a new generation led by Michael Olise, Desire Doue and Rayan Cherki.
• Los Guaraníes’s deepest run at the World Cup came in 2010, when they reached the quarter-finals, while the South American nation have also progressed beyond the group stage in four of their last five appearances.
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• They remain phenomenally strong, although there are plenty of questions surrounding five-time winners Brazil under Carlo Ancelotti.
• Netherlands vs Morocco – Even though the odds may be stacked against them, Morocco’s knack for upsetting elite opposition could produce the first major shock of the tournament.
• Congo DR and Uzbekistan are unlikely to factor heavily, making this a high‑stakes, two‑team race.
• The 2026 FIFA World Cup—the biggest football tournament in the world—will take place in the United States, Canada, and Mexico from June 11 to July 19, 2026.
• England vs Portugal – Ronaldo may have to take comfort from beating his arch-nemesis in the quarter-finals.
• I’m taking a risk on Jordan to claim a knockout place and Algeria edging out Austria in an upset as one of the top third-place teams to advance to the Round of 32.

Group Stage · Rank each group

While powerhouse nations like France, Argentina and Spain remain favorites, the expanded format creates more room for upsets, dark horses and unexpected runs that can completely reshape the bracket. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is the first edition to feature 48 nations and the first hosted by three countries — the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The expanded format introduces 12 groups and a Round of 32 knockout stage, making it the biggest World Cup in history with 104 total matches played across 16 iconic venues.

FIFA World Cup Predictions

The tournament is played every four https://world-cup-2026.us.com/ years and is known for its high intensity, global attention, and decisive matches where form, tactics, and squad depth play a crucial role. The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be the biggest tournament in history, featuring 48 teams, 104 matches, and a brand-new Round of 32 format. With eight third-place teams advancing from the group stage, there are 495 possible combinations that can dramatically change the knockout bracket. Our World Cup predictions are based on detailed analysis of team form, squad depth, tactical setups, and tournament dynamics unique to international football. With limited preparation time, neutral venues, and varying styles of play, World Cup matches require a different analytical approach compared to domestic and club competitions. In this 2026 World Cup bracket prediction, we break down every stage of the competition, from the group winners and best third-place qualifiers to the full knockout path through the Round of 32, Round of 16, semi-finals and final.

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And of course, there are also six teams still to be decided in March’s play-offs. There is currently a combined 3.7% chance of any of those sides going all the way, with Italy surely the most likely candidates if they can end their World Cup exile. Croatia are another team whose best days may be behind them but can never be ruled out. Semi-finalists in both 2018 and 2022, they are assigned a 1.1% chance of glory – lower than Mexico and Uruguay (1.7%), whose coach Bielsa recently went on a rant in a press conference following speculation over his position.

Teams are divided into 12 groups of 4, with the top 2 from each group advancing to a 32-team knockout bracket. Simulate or predict every match of the 48-team tournament — group stage through the final. Click any team to mark them as winner, or type exact scorelines for full control over your predictions of World Cup matches.

Those teams round out the top 10 favourites, with Belgium next with a 1.9% probability. Many members of the Red Devils’ ‘Golden Generation’ remain in the fold, even if the years are starting to catch up with them. Colombia also deserve their lofty status in our projections, as they come in the tournament off the back of a run to the final of the 2024 Copa América, having outscored all other teams at that tournament with 12 goals. Mexico, the team that defeated the USA in the Gold Cup final, are the host nation viewed as most likely to shock the world and lift the trophy, with a 1.3% probability.

World Cup Bracket Breakdown: Predicting Every Round from Group Stage to Final

• Only a penalty shootout denied them a bronze medal, as they lost to Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay in the third-place play-off.
• The expanded 2026 format means more teams advance from the group stage into the knockout bracket, making every goal crucial.
• France and Spain are both at roughly 17% implied probability, followed by England at 11%.
• But a stunning defeat to Guatemala, in another shootout, ended Canada’s Gold Cup campaign at the quarter-final stage and brought them crashing down to earth.
• That combination makes Panama a strong candidate for group-stage elimination.
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• Saudi Arabia are the most winnable of the three matchups, but even that game could decide whether Cape Verde stay alive or go home early.
• Along with the Gold Cup run, a 5-1 win over Uruguay last time out put Pochettino’s critics on notice, and the USA should feel good about their chances of being competitive in the knockout stages.
• While Algeria and Austria bring veteran leadership, Al‑Tamari’s pace and creativity could tilt the balance.
• Group A is a difficult group, with three teams capable of advancing.

We do our best to make sure all the information that we provide on this site is correct. However, from time to time mistakes will be made and we will not be held liable. Please check any stats or information if you are unsure how accurate they are. No guarantees are made with regards to results or financial gain. Past performances do not guarantee success in the future and betting odds fluctuate from one minute to the next.

Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal should not be discounted, while the three host nations will be desperate to make their mark. FIFA’s tennis-style rankings keeping these two apart until the final can really come to pass in a dream final. Argentina would dearly love to become the first country to retain the title since Italy way back in 1938, But this Spain are too young, too fast, too technical and too good. Two of the biggest superstar forwards in the game clash when Kylian Mbappe’s France take on Erling Haaland’s Norway in Group I. Norway beat Italy twice to get here and have a fine generation of talent. Senegal are live contenders in the group too and will be eyeing a repeat of their seismic win over Les Bleus at the 2002 World Cup.

World Cup Golden Boot Odds: Full Player List

• I expect a tight match, possibly decided in extra time or penalties, with France finding a way through to a third straight final.
• Against a hungry and well‑organized Netherlands side, Brazil appear vulnerable, with this matchup favoring the Dutch.
• The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be the biggest ever, with the tournament expanding from 32 to 48 teams.
• The tournament winner market rewards patience and conviction.
• Their Euro 2024 triumph came the day after Yamal’s 17th birthday, as he replaced Pelé (1958, 17 years, 249 days) as the youngest player to feature in a World Cup or European Championship final.
• That creates potential value discrepancies for traders who compare across platforms before entering a position.
• Cape Verde’s qualification is one of the best stories of the tournament, as they are the only African newcomers and the third-smallest nation ever to reach the World Cup.
• We have analyzed 64 matches across 8 teams in the World Cup 2026, achieving a best-tip accuracy of over 71.9%.
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• Whether you want to forecast the whole tournament, compete with friends, or just watch the games — we’ve got you covered.
• A total of 104 matches will be played, more than ever in history.
• Despite the promise shown by their young core, the Americans still seem a step behind the world’s true elite.
• La Roja swept all before them, winning six of their seven matches inside 90 minutes and only requiring extra-time to eliminate hosts Germany in the quarter-final.
• Everyone earns points based on how accurate their predictions are, and the player with the most points wins.
• The tool is a prediction model, not a forecast of guaranteed results.

This group appears straightforward, with Brazil and Morocco standing out as the strongest sides. Brazil has elite talent, though their depth remains a concern following long-term injuries to Estevao and Rodrygo months before the tournament starts. I’m giving Morocco the edge to win the group due to their cohesion and leadership from Achraf Hakimi, as well as difference‑makers like Ez Abde. Scotland could pose a threat with players like Scott McTominay and John McGinn, but they’re still at a disadvantage against better teams. They still should have enough to advance as one of the best third‑place teams ahead of Haiti.

• Along with the Gold Cup run, a 5-1 win over Uruguay last time out put Pochettino’s critics on notice, and the USA should feel good about their chances of being competitive in the knockout stages.
• A complete Python pipeline for predicting match outcomes, generatingexpected goals, and running Monte Carlo tournament simulations.Built for YouTube creators who want AI-powered soccer analysis.
• The expanded 2026 format means more teams advance from the group stage into the knockout bracket, making every goal crucial.
• There’s a fairytale start to Group E, when four-time winners Germany take on tournament debutants and the smallest nation in World Cup history, Curacao.
• Kindly be advised that all odds are accurate as of the publication date and time indicated, and they may be subject to alterations.
• Japan and Sweden are well organized but lack the elite experience needed to challenge the Dutch.
• With history on the line, I see France growing complacent, allowing Portugal to seize the moment with a historic 1–0 victory, ending Cristiano Ronaldo’s legendary career with ultimate glory.
• The tool does not blend multiple data sources or weight scores; FIFA Ranking is the single signal.

The 2026 World Cup predictor follows the official FIFA tournament format. The 12 group winners and 12 runners-up qualify automatically for the Round of 32, joined by the 8 best third-placed teams. From there, single-elimination knockouts run through the Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Final, exactly as the real World Cup football predictions bracket will play out.

• As the 2026 tournament approaches, several nations are setting their sights on lifting the coveted trophy.
• Sixteen venues across the United States, Canada and Mexico will play host to the biggest-ever edition of the tournament, with the number of teams increasing from 32 and 48 and the tally of games upped from 64 to 104.
• Here, Sports Mole provides an in-depth preview for Group F of the 2026 World Cup, including predicted standings and every nation’s key player.
• Bosnia enter confidently after knocking out Italy and looks talented enough to win this group as long as Edin Dzeko can stay on the pitch at 40 years old.
• Yamal created the most chances at the tournament, with 19, while only teammate Nico Williams (2.1) had more expected assists (xA) than his 2.0.
• Each contract poses a question and resolves to $1 (Yes) or $0 (No) based on the real-world outcome.
• Argentina enter as defending champion, but without Angel Di Maria, one of the anchors of their last run, they lack the same spark.
• Dive deeper into the tournament with our guides, analysis, and complete team profiles.

World Cup futures, soccer best bets, FIFA predictions

We have mapped out the full World Cup picture, from the group-stage battles through to the knockout phase, outlining how the tournament could unfold from start to finish. The content on this site is for entertainment purposes only and CBS Sports makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event. This site contains commercial content and CBS Sports may be compensated for the links provided on this site.

Top-ranked nations such as France, Spain, and Argentina win the simulated tournament most often, but lower-ranked teams still break through often enough to produce a different story on each run. Once a bracket is complete, a single share action copies a link containing every pick, so any prediction can be compared with others or revisited later. Welcome to the most complete World Cup 2026 simulator and predictor on the web. Whether you want to simulate the World Cup match-by-match or get instant World Cup 2026 predictions for the full tournament, this free tool covers all 48 teams across 12 groups and the 32-team knockout bracket. Spain are the +450 favorite, just edging out the top-ranked nation in the world, France at +480.

The best teams you won’t see at the 2026 World Cup

It runs from June 11 to July 19, 2026, across 16 venues in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

The notes below explain Annex C, while this tool focuses on your group rankings and champion pick. Opening that link reproduces the exact bracket, which allows predictions to be compared or revisited later. Earn points, climb the leaderboard, and create private leagues with friends. All 104 games, kickoff times, host cities, and group standings tracker. Portugal have moved level with the two South American giants and look a good bet given some of their key players’ involvement in PSG’s Champions League win, while Germany at 16/1 are quietly dangerous. On all major platforms you can sell your position at the current market price at any time.

However, history is unlikely to repeat itself this time around, at least for the back-to-back World Cup finalists. Expectations are sky-high in Mauricio Pochettino’s corner, yet the United States’ recent World Cup performances cannot inspire confidence, even though they’ve reached the knockouts in three of the last four tournaments. South Korea and Czechia appear to be the likeliest candidates to challenge El Tri for the throne, but the 10-time Gold Cup winners should live up to their billing. Before bowing out in the group stages four years ago in Qatar, Mexico had reached the knockout phase at seven consecutive World Cups. With Javier Aguirre at the helm now, they look likely to achieve that feat again.

• The U.S. version accepts credit cards, debit cards and bank transfers through a regulated intermediary.
• Cape Verde’s qualification is one of the best stories of the tournament, as they are the only African newcomers and the third-smallest nation ever to reach the World Cup.
• The tournament winner market rewards patience and conviction.
• A World Cup prediction pool (also called a soccer pool, office pool or bracket pool) is a game where you and your friends predict the scores of FIFA World Cup 2026 matches.
• That creates potential value discrepancies for traders who compare across platforms before entering a position.
• Smart Predict ranks each group by current FIFA World Ranking — the official ranking available for every qualified team.
• The fixture also represents the first time that the two nations have faced off since they played out a 1-1 draw in a friendly in May 2002.
• Reigning world champions Argentina confirmed their status as a tournament machine at the 2024 Copa America.
• Use it to pick which team qualifies from each group, then click a team in any matchup to advance them to the next round.
• Germany’s recent World Cup campaigns have fallen short since their 2014 triumph.
• This page provides comprehensive coverage of the FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious international soccer tournament.
• Mexico vs Best 3rd place Group C/E/F/H/I – Since suffering a quarter-final elimination on home soil in 1986, Mexico have reached the round of 16 in seven of their eight World Cup appearances.
• Football’s biggest stage returns this summer as a stacked line-up of global contenders collide in pursuit of 2026 FIFA World Cup glory.

Czechia holds a narrow edge thanks to their combination of veterans like Tomas Soucek and Patrik Schick, as well as somewhat newcomers in Ladislav Krejci and Pavel Sulc. Mexico’s consistency makes them a reliable choice, as well as playing at home, while South Korea’s speed can be dangerous on the counterattack. South Africa faces the steepest challenge in this group and seems unlikely to get past their first three games.

The Oranje’s run to the semi-finals of Euro 2024 – losing late on to England – was their best at any tournament since finishing third at the 2014 World Cup. But when the tournament begins, the likelihood is that Ronaldo will hog the headlines, just as he did in Qatar in 2022 and at Euro 2024. At the former tournament, Ronaldo was dropped for a last-16 tie against Switzerland after a series of ineffective displays, and his replacement Gonçalo Ramos scored a hat-trick in a 6-1 win. But the likes of Enzo Fernández and Julián Alvarez have kicked on in the last two years, and any team which has Messi has a chance of going all the way – a creditable 8.7% chance, according to the supercomputer. A lack of recent match practice against top-class European opponents could count against the Albiceleste, who also saw Ángel Di María retire from international football after the Copa América.

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Despite being defending champions and ranked #2 globally, Argentina are not the top favorites. At 38, Lionel Messi remains pivotal, but no team has repeated as champion since Brazil in 1962. Argentina has shown it can win without him, but with Messi leading, they remain serious contenders for a fourth title.

Curaçao are one of the great stories of World Cup 2026, but their story may still end in the group stage. Curaçao are the smallest country ever to reach the men’s World Cup, and their debut finals appearance will be played against teams of a very different level. Their Group E opponents are Germany, Ecuador, and Ivory Coast, which is a very rough landing spot for a debutant. It is a look at the teams with the toughest path, the thinnest squad depth, and the most unforgiving group-stage draw.

Should the United States advance to the Round of 16, it’s going to take some of their best performances of the past decade, maybe ever. Despite the promise shown by their young core, the Americans still seem a step behind the world’s true elite. Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun have had moments at the club level, but that’s never been extended to the national team. Argentina, meanwhile, remain built for high-pressure knockout matches and possess an edge in composure and quality. The 2026 World Cup will be the first tournament to feature 48 teams, expanding from the traditional 32-team format used from 1998 through 2022.

Messi also led all players in Qatar for shots (32), chances created from open play (17) and fouls won (22), becoming the second player to top all three metrics at a single World Cup. Maradona in 1986 (30 shots, 19 open-play chances created, 53 fouls won). Six of the teams appearing at the tournament are still to be decided, with four qualifying via the UEFA play-offs and another two via the inter-confederation playoffs. On 5 December, allowing fans of all nations to start plotting their routes to a possible coronation at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium. Cristiano Ronaldo enters what will surely be his final World Cup free to play after his ban for a red card against the Republic of Ireland was quashed. The Selecao’s depth of talent should be enough to pip Colombia to top spot.

Several platforms list contracts on whether specific high-profile players will appear in the tournament. Markets on whether Lionel Messi and Neymar will play are among the most active. These contracts are heavily influenced by injury news and squad announcements and can move sharply on a single report. With 12 groups in the expanded format, platforms have listed a group winner contract for each one. These are shorter-duration markets that resolve once the group stage concludes, giving traders a way to profit from group-level expectations without holding through the full bracket.

Argentina dominated the CONMEBOL World Cup qualification group, finishing nine points clear of second-placed Ecuador, and last year they also retained the Copa América for the first time since 1993. Messi (13) is one goal ahead of Mbappé, who will surely take possession of the record eventually. But the prospect of two icons duelling to end the tournament in the lead should be absorbing viewing. After watching his team fall agonisingly short on penalties against Argentina in Qatar, he has another chance to become only the second coach to win multiple World Cups (after Vittorio Pozzo in 1934 and 1938). Yamal created the most chances at the tournament, with 19, while only teammate Nico Williams (2.1) had more expected assists (xA) than his 2.0. At Euro 2024, Luis de la Fuente’s Spain produced one of the most eye-catching international tournament successes in recent memory.

England

This lets you lock in gains if a team’s probability has risen since you bought in or cut losses if circumstances have moved against you. France leads the field at roughly 18% implied probability, followed by Spain at 16-17%, England at 11% and Argentina and Brazil tied around 9%. Combined volume on this contract across Kalshi and Polymarket is close to $300 million in the U.S. and $1 billion globally (most on Polymarket). Settlement is July 20, one day after the final at MetLife Stadium. As the 2026 tournament approaches, several nations are setting their sights on lifting the coveted trophy.

• In addition to the top eight favourites, there are two other teams given at least a 2% chance of winning the World Cup – Norway (2.3%) and Colombia (2.0%).
• Meanwhile, Canada meets Bosnia & Herzegovina in an intriguing clash.
• Reigning champion Argentina, led by Lionel Messi, are +900 as they seek to become the first back-to-back winners since Brazil in 1962.
• Lower-ranked teams still advance regularly, so no outcome is guaranteed.
• Polymarket hosts a market asking which continent will produce the 2026 champion.
• The fourth, FIFA ranking, serves as the simulator’s deterministic tiebreaker in place of the fair-play and drawing-of-lots rules used at the real tournament, which cannot be modeled in a prediction tool.
• Colombia also deserve their lofty status in our projections, as they come in the tournament off the back of a run to the final of the 2024 Copa América, having outscored all other teams at that tournament with 12 goals.
• Who they are and where in the draw they might land is basically impossible to forecast with any certainty.
• Their roster is stacked with talent from back to front, and the possibility of Ronaldo’s final World Cup only sharpens the focus.

World Cup Group F Preview: Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden

Even at home in the 2022 World Cup, Qatar still couldn’t get a point and they’ll likely struggle to do so again. Building a perfect bracket may be unrealistic, but identifying where chaos is most likely, and where elite teams will hold firm, is the key to getting ahead. Below, you’ll find a full round-by-round projection, blending safe picks with calculated risks to map out how the 2026 World Cup could unfold. Want to simulate the full tournament after finishing your group predictions? Use theFull Tournament Simulator to generate a complete bracket from groups to the final.

The fixture has all the makings of a potential group decider between the two highest-ranked nations in the bracket, with both sides renewing acquaintances at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, meeting for the sixth time in their history. Turkey booked their place at the 2026 finals via the play-offs, finishing second behind Spain in Group E of UEFA qualifying before overcoming Kosovo in the Path C decider to secure their ticket to the global stage. Debutants Uzbekistan are seen as having a slightly better chance of impressing than the other new nations, as they have a 0.2% chance of going all the way. A more realistic aim might be getting through the groups after impressing in AFC qualification – beating out sides like Qatar and United Arab Emirates. When the tournament begins, it will have been 20 years since the Azzurri played a knockout match at the World Cup – with their most recent such game being the 2006 final.

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Cape Verde (0.1%) have qualified and are the second-smallest nation by population (after Iceland in 2018) to achieve the feat. They fared slightly better with our model than the other first-timers Curaçao and Jordan (both 0.04%). If previous World Cups are anything to go by, shocks and surprises should be a given, so all those teams will still be dreaming of a deep run. They must get past Northern Ireland and potentially Wales to make it, with both of those sides hoping to join fellow home nations England and Scotland.